Cancer Res Treat.  2017 Jul;49(3):635-642. 10.4143/crt.2016.282.

Nomograms Predicting Platinum Sensitivity, Progression-Free Survival, and Overall Survival Using Pretreatment Complete Blood Cell Counts in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

• Paik ES
• Sohn I
• Baek SY
• Shim M
• Choi HJ
• Kim TJ
• Choi CH
• Lee JW
• Kim BG
• Lee YY
• Bae DS

• KMID: 2388309
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.282

Abstract

PURPOSE
This study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic significance of pre-treatment complete blood cell count (CBC), including white blood cell (WBC) differential, in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients with primary debulking surgery (PDS) and to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS).
MATERIALS AND METHODS
We retrospectively reviewed the records of 757 patients with EOC whose primary treatment consisted of surgical debulking and chemotherapy at Samsung Medical Center from 2002 to 2012. We subsequently created nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS as prediction models for prognostic variables including age, stage, grade, cancer antigen 125 level, residual disease after PDS, and pre-treatment WBC differential counts. The models were then validated by 10-fold cross-validation (CV).
RESULTS
In addition to stage and residual disease after PDS, which are known predictors, lymphocyte and monocyte count were found to be significant prognostic factors for platinum-sensitivity, platelet count for PFS, and neutrophil count for OS on multivariate analysis. The area under the curves of platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS calculated by the 10-fold CV procedure were 0.7405, 0.8159, and 0.815, respectively.
CONCLUSION
Prognostic factors including pre-treatment CBC were used to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS of patients with EOC. These nomograms can be used to better estimate individual outcomes.

Keyword

Nomograms; Prognosis; Ovarian neoplasms

MeSH Terms

Blood Cell Count*
Blood Cells*
Disease-Free Survival*
Drug Therapy
Humans
Leukocytes
Lymphocytes
Monocytes
Multivariate Analysis
Neutrophils
Nomograms*
Ovarian Neoplasms*
Platelet Count
Platinum*
Prognosis
Retrospective Studies
Platinum

Figure

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  Fig. 1. Nomogram for predicting platinum sensitivity. FIGO, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics

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  Fig. 2. Nomogram for predicting 3-year progression-free survival. FIGO, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

• 

  Fig. 3. Nomogram for predicting 5-year overall survival. FIGO, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

• 

  Fig. 4. Calibration plot for platinum sensitivity (A), progression-free survival (PFS) nomogram model (B), and overall survival (C) nomogram model.

Reference

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