Cancer Res Treat.  2018 Oct;50(4):1194-1202. 10.4143/crt.2017.484.

Lifestyle Risk Prediction Model for Prostate Cancer in a Korean Population

• Kim SH
• Kim S
• Joung JY
• Kwon WA
• Seo HK
• Chung J
• Nam BH
• Lee KH

• KMID: 2424792
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2017.484

Abstract

PURPOSE
The use of prostate-specific antigen as a biomarker for prostate cancer (PC) has been controversial and is, therefore, not used by many countries in their national health screening programs. The biological characteristics of PC in East Asians including Koreans and Japanese are different from those in the Western populations. Potential lifestyle risk factors for PC were evaluated with the aim of developing a risk prediction model.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
A total of 1,179,172 Korean men who were cancer free from 1996 to 1997, had taken a physical examination, and completed a lifestyle questionnaire, were enrolled in our study to predict their risk for PC for the next eight years, using the Cox proportional hazards model. The model's performance was evaluated using the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow type chi-square statistics.
RESULTS
The risk prediction model studied age, height, body mass index, glucose levels, family history of cancer, the frequency of meat consumption, alcohol consumption, smoking status, and physical activity, which were all significant risk factors in a univariate analysis. The model performed very well (C statistic, 0.887; 95% confidence interval, 0.879 to 0.895) and estimated an elevated PC risk in patients who did not consume alcohol or smoke, compared to heavy alcohol consumers (hazard ratio [HR], 0.78) and current smokers (HR, 0.73) (p < 0.001).
CONCLUSION
This model can be used for identifying Korean and other East Asian men who are at a high risk for developing PC, as well as for cancer screening and developing preventive health strategies.

Keyword

Prostate neoplasms; Life style; Decision aids; Forecasting

MeSH Terms

Alcohol Drinking
Asian Continental Ancestry Group
Body Height
Decision Support Techniques
Early Detection of Cancer
Forecasting
Glucose
Humans
Life Style*
Male
Mass Screening
Meat
Motor Activity
Physical Examination
Population Characteristics
Proportional Hazards Models
Prostate*
Prostate-Specific Antigen
Prostatic Neoplasms*
Risk Factors
Smoke
Smoking
Glucose
Prostate-Specific Antigen
Smoke

Figure

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  Fig. 1. Discrimination and calibration plots in the development cohort. (A) Discrimination. (B) Calibration. CI, confidence interval.

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  Fig. 2. Discrimination and calibration plots in the validation cohort. (A) Discrimination. (B) Calibration. CI, confidence interval.

Reference

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