Gut Liver.  2017 Sep;11(5):684-692. 10.5009/gnl16465.

Nomograms to Predict the Individual Survival of Patients with Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Hepatectomy

• Shen J
• He L
• Li C
• Wen T
• Chen W
• Lu C
• Yan L
• Li B
• Yang J

• KMID: 2389357
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.5009/gnl16465

Abstract

BACKGROUND/AIMS
Solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a subgroup of HCCs. We aimed to establish nomograms for predicting the survival of solitary HCC patients after hepatectomy.
METHODS
A total of 538 solitary HCC patients were randomly classified into training and validation sets. A Cox model was used to identify predictors of overall survival (OS) in the training set. A nomogram was generated based on these predictors and was validated using the validation set.
RESULTS
Tumor size, microvascular invasion, and major vascular invasion were significantly associated with OS in the training set. Nomograms were developed based on these predictors in the multivariate analysis. The C-index was 0.75 for the OS nomogram and 0.72 for the recurrence-free survival nomogram. Compared to the index of conventional staging systems for predicting survival (0.71 for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, 0.66 for the seventh American Joint Committee on Cancer, 0.68 for Cancer of the Liver Italian Program, and 0.70 for Hong Kong Liver Cancer), the index of the OS nomogram was significantly higher. Moreover, the calibration curve fitted well between the predicted and observed survival rate. Similarly, in the validation set, the nomogram discrimination was superior to those of the four staging systems (p<0.001).
CONCLUSIONS
The nomograms demonstrated good discrimination performance in predicting 3- and 5-year survival rates for solitary HCCs after hepatectomy.

Keyword

Nomograms; Prognosis; Carcinoma, hepatocellular; Surgery

MeSH Terms

Calibration
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular*
Discrimination (Psychology)
Hepatectomy*
Hong Kong
Humans
Joints
Liver
Liver Neoplasms
Multivariate Analysis
Nomograms*
Prognosis
Survival Rate