Projection of Supply of and Demand for Psychiatrists in Korea

Kim, Chang Yup; Kim, Yoon

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Assuring adequate supply of specialist physicians is an important task in national health planning. An over-supply in a given speciality inflates health care cost, while undersupply increases the likelihood that population has a barrier in the access to basic health services needed. Only a few national specialty-specific physician planning studies have been undertaken in Korea. We forecasted the supply of and the demands for psychiatrists in the target year of 2015.
METHODS
We adopted alternative projection models combined with demographic method as a supply forecasting method and Health Resources and Services Administration's demographic utilization-based model as a requirements forecasting method. The model uses selected data primarily from National Hospital Discharge Survey, database of the Korean Neuropsychiatric Association (KNPA) survey for certified members of KNPA, and Hospital Accreditation and Teaching Hospital Designation Report. We assumed two alternatives in supply forecasting by the number of medical students enrolled, and three alternatives in requirements forecasting based on future service utilization and physician productivity.
RESULTS
Depending on assumptions, total psychiatrist supply ranged from 3,439 to 3,575 and requirements ranged from 1,873 to 4,048 in 2015. We estimated 162 surplus in 2005 and a 162 shortage of psychiatrist in 2015 based on high-level supply estimates and medium level requirements estimates.
CONCLUSION
There would be no overt oversupply of psychiatrists in 2015 if the number of new residency positions is maintained at 4.6% of the number of medical students newly enrolled in a year. Further studies would be needed concerning comprehensive economic and institutional factors which could affect the requirements of psychiatrists.