Health Policy Manag.  2017 Mar;27(1):18-29. 10.4332/KJHPA.2017.27.1.18.

A Comparative Analysis for Projection Models of the Physician Demand and Supply Among 5 Countries

• Seo KH
• Lee SH

• KMID: 2376987
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4332/KJHPA.2017.27.1.18

Abstract

BACKGROUND
In Korea, the problem of physician workforce imbalances has been a debated issue for a long time. This study aimed to draw key lessons and policy implications to Korea by analyzing projection models of physician demand/supply among five countries.
METHODS
We adopted theoretical framework and analyzed detail indicators used in projection models of demand/supply comparatively among countries. A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed and Google Scholar with key search terms and it was complimented with hand searching of grey literature in Korean or English.
RESULTS
As a results, Korea has been used a supply-based traditional approach without taking various variables or environmental factors influencing on demand/supply into consideration. The projection models of USA and Netherlands which considered the diversity of variables and political issues is the most closest integrated approach. Based on the consensus of stakeholder, the evolved integrated forecasting approach which best suits our nation is needed to minimize a wasteful debate related to physician demand/supply. Also it is necessary to establish the national level statistics indices and database about physician workforce. In addition, physician workforce planning will be discussed periodically.
CONCLUSION
We expect that this study will pave the way to seek reasonable and developmental strategies of physician workforce planning.

Keyword

Medical workforce; Planning; Projection; Demand; Supply

MeSH Terms

Consensus
Forecasting
Hand
Korea
Netherlands