J Korean Med Sci.  2007 Jun;22(3):524-528. 10.3346/jkms.2007.22.3.524.

Temporal Changes of Lung Cancer Mortality in Korea

• Choi Y
• Kim Y
• Hong YC
• Park SK
• Yoo KY

• KMID: 1778365
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2007.22.3.524

Abstract

The lung cancer mortality in Korea has increased remarkably during the last 20 yr, and, it has become the first leading cause of cancer-related deaths since 2000. The aim of the current study was to examine time trends of lung cancer mortality during the period 1984-2003 in Korea, assessing the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. Data on the annual number of deaths due to lung cancer and on population statistics from 1984 to 2003 were obtained from the Korea National Statistical Office. A log-linear Poisson age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort. The both trends of male and female lung cancer mortality were both explained by age-period-cohort models. The risks of lung cancer mortalities for both genders were shown to decline in recent birth cohorts. The decreasing trends begin with the 1939 birth cohort for men and 1959 for women. The mortality pattern of lung cancer was dominantly explained by a birth cohort effect, possibly related with the change in smoking pattern, for both men and women. Finally, the mortality of lung cancer in Korea is expected to further increase in both men and women for a while.

Keyword

Cohort Effect; Lung Neoplasms; Mortality; Korea; Smoking; Linear Models

MeSH Terms

Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Cohort Studies
Female
Humans
Korea
Lung Neoplasms/*diagnosis/*epidemiology/*mortality
Male
Middle Aged
Smoking
Survival Analysis
Time Factors

Figure

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  Fig. 1 Age-standardized mortality of lung cancer in Korea, 1984-2003.

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  Fig. 2 Age-specific mortalities of lung cancer by year of birth, 1909-1979.

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  Fig. 3 Nonlinear effects of birth cohort (A) and period (B) on male lung cancer mortality in Korea.

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  Fig. 4 Cohort effects on lung cancer mortality in Korea.

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