Adv Pediatr Surg.  2020 Jun;26(1):1-10. 10.13029/aps.2020.26.1.1.

A Single Pediatric Surgeon Working in a Single Center: Was There a Change in the Pediatric Surgeon's Role Following 25 Years of Service in Suwon City?

• Hong J
• Sim J

• KMID: 2525494
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.13029/aps.2020.26.1.1

Abstract

Purpose
Pediatric surgical activity is an important factor for a hospital manager when considering to hire a new pediatric surgeon. The purpose of this study was to investigate the activity of pediatric surgeons by comparing the number of surgeries and local population trends over the history of the institution, and to predict the potential demand for pediatric surgeons in the future. Method: The annual number of surgeries performed at the Department of Pediatric Surgery of Ajou University Medical Center from May 1994 to December 2018 was investigated. In addition, the total and pediatric populations and demographic trends in Suwon and Gyeonggi-do and nationwide trends were examined, and the change in the number of surgeries performed annually was compared with the total and pediatric populations. Predictive model of future population in the region was created with logarithmic regression.
Results
The average annual number of operations was 539, and neonatal surgeries consisted 6% of all surgeries. The proportion of children in the total population in Gyeonggi-do decreased from 30% (1995) to 17% (2018) and from 31% (1995) to 17% (2018) in Suwon. In 2018, Suwon's population increased by 454,556 compared to that in 1995, but the decrease in the children's population seems to reflect the decrease in the national total fertility rate over the past 25 years. The predictive model suggested an aggravation in the decrease of pediatric population in the region in the next 20 years, predicting a 41.86% decrease in Gyeonggi-do and a 55.15% decrease in Suwon compared to 2020.
Conclusion
According to the results, the number of cases of pediatric surgery has grown relatively, considering the decrease in the pediatric population which may aggravate in the future. These data may be used as indirect evidences for organizations to determine whether to hire new pediatric surgeons.

Keyword

Surgeons; Population decrease; Workforce; Pediatrics; Faculty; Medical