Osong Public Health Res Perspect.  2014 Feb;5(1):40-45. 10.1016/j.phrp.2014.01.002.

What Does a Mathematical Model Tell About the Impact of Reinfection in Korean Tuberculosis Infection?

• Kim S
• Choe S
• Kim J
• Nam S
• Shin Y
• Lee S

• KMID: 2518116
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.phrp.2014.01.002

Abstract

Objectives
According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, new active tuberculosis (TB) cases have increased since 2001. Some key factors explain and characterize the transmission dynamics of Korean TB infection, such as a higher ratio of latent individuals and a new reporting system implemented in 2001, among others.
Methods
We propose a mathematical TB model that includes exogenous reinfection to gain a better understanding of the recent trend for TB incidence. We divide the simulation time window into two periods, 1970–2000 and 2001–2012, according to the implementation date of a new TB detection system.
Results
Two sets of parameters, including the transmission rate, the latent period, the recovery rate, and the proportion of exogenous reinfection, are estimated using the least-squares method and calibrated to data on the incidence of active TB.
Conclusion
Among some key parameters in the model, the case finding effort turned out to be the most significant impacting component on the reduction in the active TB cases.

Keyword

Tuberculosis; Exogeneous reinfection; Tuberculosis control measures; Korea