J Prev Med Public Health.  2017 Mar;50(2):83-90. 10.3961/jpmph.16.085.

Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study

• Khosravi Shadmani F
• Mansori K
• Karami M
• Zayeri F
• Shadman RK
• Hanis SM
• Soori H

• KMID: 2378095
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.16.085

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden.
METHODS
The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios.
RESULTS
The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads.
CONCLUSIONS
On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.

Keyword

Traffic accidents; Risk factors; Prevalence; Human; Iran

MeSH Terms

Accidents, Traffic
Cell Phones
Child
Head Protective Devices
Humans
Iran*
Joints
Jurisprudence
Police
Prevalence
Risk Factors*