J Korean Med Sci.  2016 Aug;31(8):1181-1189. 10.3346/jkms.2016.31.8.1181.

Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032

• Yun JW
• Son M

• KMID: 2373743
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2016.31.8.1181

Abstract

Forecasting cause-specific mortality can help estimate the future burden of diseases and provide a clue for preventing diseases. Our objective was to forecast the mortality for causes of death in the future (2013-2032) based on the past trends (1983-2012) in Korea. The death data consisted of 12 major causes of death from 1983 to 2012 and the population data consisted of the observed and estimated populations (1983-2032) in Korea. The modified age-period-cohort model with an R-based program, nordpred software, was used to forecast future mortality. Although the age-standardized rates for the world standard population for both sexes are expected to decrease from 2008-2012 to 2028-2032 (males: -31.4%, females: -32.3%), the crude rates are expected to increase (males: 46.3%, females: 33.4%). The total number of deaths is also estimated to increase (males: 52.7%, females: 41.9%). Additionally, the largest contribution to the overall change in deaths was the change in the age structures. Several causes of death are projected to increase in both sexes (cancer, suicide, heart diseases, pneumonia and Alzheimer's disease), while others are projected to decrease (cerebrovascular diseases, liver diseases, diabetes mellitus, traffic accidents, chronic lower respiratory diseases, and pulmonary tuberculosis). Cancer is expected to be the highest cause of death for both the 2008-2012 and 2028-2032 time periods in Korea. To reduce the disease burden, projections of the future cause-specific mortality should be used as fundamental data for developing public health policies.

Keyword

Cause of Death; Mortality Forecasting; Korea

MeSH Terms

Age Factors
Cause of Death/*trends
Female
Forecasting
Humans
Male
Models, Theoretical
Neoplasms/mortality
Republic of Korea
Sex Factors

Figure

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  Fig. 1 The projection of the crude and age-standardized rates by the major causes of death in the future period 2013-2032 based on the observed period 1983-2012. MC, Male crude rates; FC, Female crude rates; MA, Male age-standardized rates; FA, Female age-standardized rates (per 100,000 person-years).

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  Fig. 2 The age-specific rates of all deaths in the past (1983-2012) and future periods (2013-2032).

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  Fig. 3 The trends of the crude rates according to 13 major causes of death from 1983-1987 to 2028-2032 in both sexes. CA, Cancer; CVD, Cerebrovascular diseases; HD, Heart diseases; SUI, Suicide; LD, Liver diseases; DM, Diabetes mellitus; TA, Traffic accident; CLRD, Chronic lower respiratory diseases; PNA, Pneumonia; HTN, Hypertension diseases; TB, pulmonary Tuberculosis; ALZ, Alzheimer's disease.

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