Cancer Res Treat.  2014 Apr;46(2):124-130.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2014

• Jung KW
• Won YJ
• Kong HJ
• Oh CM
• Lee DH
• Lee JS

Abstract

PURPOSE
We studied and reported on cancer incidence and mortality rates as projected for the year 2014 in order to estimate Korea's current cancer burden.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2011 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2012 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2014 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was employed, except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.
RESULTS
A total of 265,813 new cancer cases and 74,981 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2014. Further, the crude incidence rate per 100,000 of all sites combined will likely reach 524.7 and the age-standardized incidence rate, 338.5. Meanwhile, the crude mortality rate of all sites combined and age-standardized rate are projected to be 148.0 and 84.6, respectively. Given the rapid rise in prostate cancer cases, it is anticipated to be the fourth most frequently occurring cancer site in men for the first time.
CONCLUSION
Cancer has become the most prominent public health concern in Korea, and as the population ages, the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase.

Keyword

Incidence; Mortality; Neoplasms; Forecasting; Korea; 2014

MeSH Terms

Forecasting
Humans
Incidence*
Korea
Linear Models
Male
Mortality*
Prostatic Neoplasms
Public Health

Figure

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  Fig. 1 The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2014. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.

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  Fig. 2 Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2014 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

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  Fig. 3 Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2014 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

Reference

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