J Breast Cancer.  2014 Sep;17(3):226-235. 10.4048/jbc.2014.17.3.226.

Validation of Risk Assessment Models for Predicting the Incidence of Breast Cancer in Korean Women

• Min JW
• Chang MC
• Lee HK
• Hur MH
• Noh DY
• Yoon JH
• Jung Y
• Yang JH
• Korean Breast Cancer Society

• KMID: 2286349
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4048/jbc.2014.17.3.226

Abstract

PURPOSE
The Gail model is one of the most widely used tools to assess the risk of breast cancer. However, it is known to overestimate breast cancer risk for Asian women. Here, we validate the Gail model and the Korean model using Korean data, and subsequently update and revalidate the Korean model using recent data.
METHODS
We validated the modified Gail model (model 2), Asian American Gail model, and a previous Korean model using screening patient data collected between January 1999 and July 2004. The occurrence of breast cancer was confirmed by matching the resident registration number with data from the Korean Breast Cancer Registration Program. The expected-to-observed (E/O) ratio was used to validate the reliability of the program, and receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was used to evaluate the program's discriminatory power. There has been a rapid increase in the incidence of breast cancer in Korea, and we updated and revalidated the Korean model using incidence and mortality rate data from recent years.
RESULTS
Among 40,229 patients who were included in the validation, 161 patients were confirmed to have developed breast cancer within 5 years of screening. The E/O ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were 2.46 (2.10-2.87) for the modified Gail model and 1.29 (1.11-1.51) for the Asian American Gail model. The E/O ratio and 95% CI for the Korean model was 0.50 (0.43-0.59). For the updated Korean model, the E/O ratio and 95% CI were 0.85 (0.73-1.00). In the discriminatory power, the area under curve and 95% CI of the modified Gail model, Asian American Gail model, Korean model and updated Korean model were 0.547 (0.500-0.594), 0.543 (0.495-0.590), 0.509 (0.463-0.556), and 0.558 (0.511-0.605), respectively.
CONCLUSION
The updated Korean model shows a better performance than the other three models. It is hoped that this study can provide the basis for a clinical risk assessment program and a future prospective study of breast cancer prevention.

Keyword

Breast neoplasms; Risk assessment; Validation studies

MeSH Terms

Area Under Curve
Asian Americans
Asian Continental Ancestry Group
Breast Neoplasms*
Female
Hope
Humans
Incidence*
Korea
Mass Screening
Mortality
Risk Assessment*
ROC Curve

Figure

• 

  Figure 1 Flow chart of data selection process.

• 

  Figure 2 Baseline hazards according to the years of the screening visit.

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