How many emergency physicians does Korea need?

Je, Sang Mo; Choi, Young Hwan; Park, Yoo Seuk; Cho, Young Soon; Kim, Seung Ho

Abstract

PURPOSE
This research used mathematical modeling to project the supply and demand of emergency physicians over the next decade in Korea.
METHODS
A model was used to project the annual emergency physicians (EP) workforce supply and demand through the year 2015. The mathematical equations used were as follows: Supply = number of emergency physicians at the beginning of the year plus annual residency graduates minus annual attrition; Demand formula I = 5.29 fulltime equivalent positions/emergency department (ED) x the number of hospital EDs, Demand formula II = annual ED visits/(4,700visits/EP/year), Demand formula III = (11 to 16 EP per major referral ED) + (6 to 8 EP per urban district/ regional hospital ED).
RESULTS
While the most conservative demand projection was 1,505 EPs in the year 2015, the most aggressive supply estimate with a yearly supply of 120 new EPs and a 1% attrition rate was 1,362 EPs in that year.
CONCLUSIONS
In Korea, emergency physicians will remain in short supply for the next ten years, even at the present levels of EM residency output.