Gut Liver.  2024 Sep;18(5):834-844. 10.5009/gnl230370.

A New Risk Prediction Model for Detecting Endoscopic Activity of Ulcerative Colitis

• Guan G
• Zhuoga S
• Zheng S
• Xu K
• Weng T
• Qian W
• Ji D
• Yu X

• KMID: 2559092
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.5009/gnl230370

Abstract

Background/Aims
Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an incurable, relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease that increases steadily. Mucosal healing has become the primary therapeutic objective for UC. Nevertheless, endoscopic assessments are invasive, expensive, time-consuming, and inconvenient. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a noninvasive predictive model to monitor endoscopic activity in patients with UC.
Methods
Clinical data of 198 adult patients with UC were collected from January 2016 to August 2022 at Huadong Hospital, China.
Results
Patients with UC were randomly divided into the training cohort (70%, n=138) and the validation cohort (30%, n=60). The receiver operating characteristic curve value for the training group was 0.858 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.781 to 0.936), whereas it was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.731 to 0.960) for the validation group. The calibration curve employed the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p>0.05) to demonstrate the consistency between the predicted and the actual probabilities in the nomogram of these two groups. The decision curve analysis validated that the nomogram had clinical usefulness.
Conclusions
The nomogram, which incorporated activated partial thromboplastin time, fecal occult blood test, β2-globulin level, and fibrinogen degradation products, served as a prospective tool for evaluating UC activity in clinical practices.

Keyword

Ulcerative colitis; Fecal marker; Blood marker; Endoscopy; Nomograms