Korean Circ J.  2024 Jan;54(1):1-12. 10.4070/kcj.2023.0262.

Estimation of Supply and Demand for Cardiologists in Korea

• Kim M
• Chae K
• Wang JM
• Choi A
• Bae JW
• Moon KW
• Kim S

• KMID: 2550602
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4070/kcj.2023.0262

Abstract

Background and Objectives
The objective of this study was to estimate the supply and demand for cardiologists in Korea and provide evidence for healthcare policy to ensure a stable and adequate workforce for optimal cardiovascular disease management.
Methods
Past trends of inflow and outflow of cardiologists were used to make crude projections, which were then adjusted based on demands of services to obtain final projections. Inflow of cardiologists was estimated using second-order polynomial regression and demand for cardiology care was estimated using linear regression.
Results
There were 1,139 active cardiologists who were under the age of 65 in clinical practice in Korea. The estimated number of cardiologists from 2022 to 2040 showed that the number of cardiologists would peak at 1,344 in 2032 and gradually decrease thereafter. We also estimated an increase of 947,811 cases of heart-related procedures annually from 2023 to 2032. The number of heart-related procedures per cardiologist would increase 1.4 times from 12,964 in 2023 to 17,862 in 2032. The estimated number of emergency patients per cardiologist under 50 years old would almost double from 544 in 2022 to 987 in 2032.
Conclusions
We expect significant shortage of cardiologists in Korea within the next 10 years. The number of emergency patients per cardiologist will increase by nearly 50%, leading to high individual workload for cardiologists. To prevent this imbalance between supply and demand, an organized and collective approach by the specialty of cardiology is imperative to produce a balanced workforce.

Keyword

Cardiologist; Health Services Needs and Demand; Workforce

Figure

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  Figure 1 Current number of active cardiologists.

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  Figure 2 Estimated number of cardiologists (2022–2040). The inflow of cardiologists refers to the number of physicians who have passed the cardiologist board certification exam between 2002 and 2021. The outflow of cardiologists is the number of cardiologists who will reach the retirement age of 65 between 2023 and 2040. The estimated number of cardiologists was calculated by adding the inflow to and subtracting the outflow from the current active number of cardiologists.

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  Figure 3 Estimated volume of heart-related procedures. The blue dotted line represents second-order polynomial regression and the yellow dotted line represents linear regression analyses on the estimated volume of heart-related procedures.

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  Figure 4 Estimated number of cardiologists required for heart-related procedures and estimated volume of procedures per cardiologist. The dark gray bar represents the estimated number of cardiologists. The light gray bar represents the required number of cardiologists. The gray solid line indicates the gap between the 2. The black solid line represents the estimated volume of heart-related procedures per cardiologist.RBRVS = resource based relative value scale.

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  Figure 5 Estimated number of emergency patients per cardiologist. The gray bar represents total volume of emergency care. The light gray solid line represents the number of emergency patients per cardiologist. The dark gray solid line indicate the number of emergency patients per cardiologist under 50 years old.

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