J Korean Neuropsychiatr Assoc.  2023 Aug;62(3):95-101. 10.4306/jknpa.2023.62.3.95.

Development of Prediction Model for Suicide Attempts Using the Korean Youth Health Behavior Web-Based Survey in Korean Middle and High School Students

• Kim Y
• Woo SI
• Hahn SW
• Lee YJ
• Kim M
• Jin H
• Kim J
• Hwang J

• KMID: 2545821
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4306/jknpa.2023.62.3.95

Abstract

Objectives
Assessing the risks of youth suicide in educational and clinical settings is crucial. Therefore, this study developed a machine learning model to predict suicide attempts using the Korean Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBWS).
Methods
KYRBWS is conducted annually on Korean middle and high school students to assess their health-related behaviors. The KYRBWS data for 2021, which showed 1206 adolescents reporting suicide attempts out of 54848, was split into the training (n=43878) and test (n=10970) datasets. Thirty-nine features were selected from the KYRBWS questionnaire. The balanced accuracy of the model was employed as a metric to select the best model. Independent validations were conducted with the test dataset of 2021 KYRBWS (n=10970) and the external dataset of 2020 KYRBWS (n=54948). The clinical implication of the prediction by the selected model was measured for sensitivity, specificity, true prediction rate (TPR), and false prediction rate (FPR).
Results
Balanced bag of histogram gradient boosting model has shown the best performance (balanced accuracy=0.803). This model shows 76.23% sensitivity, 83.08% specificity, 10.03% TPR, and 99.30% FPR for the test dataset as well as 77.25% sensitivity, 84.62% specificity, 9.31% TPR, and 99.45% FPR for the external dataset, respectively.
Conclusion
These results suggest that a specific machine learning model can predict suicide attempts among adolescents with high accuracy.

Keyword

Suicide attempt; Adolescent; Machine learning; Prediction