Yonsei Med J.  2022 May;63(5):422-429. 10.3349/ymj.2022.63.5.422.

Validation of Machine Learning Models to Predict Adverse Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19: A Prospective Pilot Study

• Kim HJ
• Heo J
• Han D
• Oh HS

• KMID: 2529387
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3349/ymj.2022.63.5.422

Abstract

Purpose
We previously developed learning models for predicting the need for intensive care and oxygen among patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Here, we aimed to prospectively validate the accuracy of these models.
Materials and Methods
Probabilities of the need for intensive care [intensive care unit (ICU) score] and oxygen (oxygen score) were calculated from information provided by hospitalized COVID-19 patients (n=44) via a web-based application. The performance of baseline scores to predict 30-day outcomes was assessed.
Results
Among 44 patients, 5 and 15 patients needed intensive care and oxygen, respectively. The area under the curve of ICU score and oxygen score to predict 30-day outcomes were 0.774 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.614–0.934] and 0.728 (95% CI: 0.559–0.898), respectively. The ICU scores of patients needing intensive care increased daily by 0.71 points (95% CI: 0.20–1.22) after hospitalization and by 0.85 points (95% CI: 0.36–1.35) after symptom onset, which were significantly different from those in individuals not needing intensive care (p=0.002 and <0.001, respectively). Trends in daily oxygen scores overall were not markedly different; however, when the scores were evaluated within <7 days after symptom onset, the patients needing oxygen showed a higher daily increase in oxygen scores [1.81 (95% CI: 0.48–3.14) vs. -0.28 (95% CI: 1.00–0.43), p=0.007].
Conclusion
Our machine learning models showed good performance for predicting the outcomes of COVID-19 patients and could thus be useful for patient triage and monitoring.

Keyword

COVID-19; machine learning; validation study; prospective studies; prognosis