J Korean Burn Soc.  2021 Jun;24(1):1-6. 10.47955/jkbs.21.0003.

The Accuracy of Prediction Models in Burn Patients

• Woo J
• Kym D

• KMID: 2516090
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.47955/jkbs.21.0003

Abstract

Purpose
The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of four prediction models in adult burn patients. M ethods: This retrospective study was conducted on 696 adult burn patients who were treated at burn intensive care unit (BICU) of Hallym University Hangang Sacred Heart Hospital from January 2017 to December 2019. The models are ABSI, APACHE IV, rBaux and Hangang score.
Results
The discrimination of each prediction model was analyzed as AUC of ROC curve. AUC value was the highest with Hangang score of 0.931 (0.908∼0.954), followed by rBaux 0.896 (0.867∼0.924), ABSI 0.883 (0.853∼0.913) and APACHE IV 0.851 (0.818∼0.884).
Conclusion
The results of evaluating the accuracy of the four models, Hangang score showed the highest prediction. But it is necessary to apply the appropriate prediction model according to characteristics of the burn center.

Keyword

Burn; Prediction model; Hangang score