J Korean Med Sci.  2020 Aug;35(34):e317. 10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e317.

Mass Infection Analysis of COVID-19 Using the SEIRD Model in DaeguGyeongbuk of Korea from April to May, 2020

• Bae TW
• Kwon KK
• Kim KH

• KMID: 2505729
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e317

Abstract

Background
The novel coronavirus (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]) outbreak began in China in December last year, and confirmed cases began occurring in Korea in mid-February 2020. Since the end of February, the rate of infection has increased greatly due to mass (herd) infection within religious groups and nursing homes in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions. This mass infection has increased the number of infected people more rapidly than was initially expected; the epidemic model based on existing studies had predicted a much lower infection rate and faster recovery.
Methods
The present study evaluated rapid infection spread by mass infection in Korea and the high mortality rate for the elderly and those with underlying diseases through the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model.
Results
The present study demonstrated early infection peak occurrence (-6.3 days for Daegu and -5.3 days for Gyeongbuk) and slow recovery trend (= -1,486.6 persons for Daegu and -223.7 persons for Gyeongbuk) between the actual and the epidemic model for a mass infection region compared to a normal infection region.
Conclusion
The analysis of the time difference between infection and recovery can help predict the epidemic peak due to mass (or normal) infection and can also be used as a time index to prepare medical resources.

Keyword

Coronavirus; COVID-19; Mass infection; SEIRD model; Korea

Figure

• 

  Fig. 1 Results of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead model for mass infection. (A) λI = −6.3 days for Daegu was obtained by the difference between the actual epidemic peak dI.a = 25 days and the modeled epidemic peak dI.m = 31.3 days. (B) λI = −5.3 days for Gyeongbuk was obtained by the difference between the actual epidemic peak dI.a = 24 and the modeled epidemic peak dI.m = 29.3 days.

• 

  Fig. 2 Results of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Dead model for normal infection. (A) λI = −0.1 days for Seoul is calculated as the difference between the actual epidemic peak dI.a = 53 days and the modeled epidemic peak dI.m = 53.1 days. (B) λI = 0.1 days for Gyeonggi is calculated as the difference between the actual epidemic peak dI.a = 50 days and the modeled epidemic peak dI.m = 49.9 days.

• 

  Fig. 3 Trend of daily (infections and deaths) and cumulative (total infections and total recovered) coronavirus disease 2019 confirmed patients. (A) The cumulative confirmed cases in Daegu rapidly exceeded 6,000 through mass infection by the religious groups within a month. (B) The cumulative number of confirmed cases in Gyeongbuk has steeply exceeded 1,100 through mass infection at nursing hospitals within a month. (C) The number of confirmed cases in Seoul gradually reached 250 due to general infection within a month. (D) The number of confirmed patients in the game gradually reached 230 due to general infection within a month.

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