J Korean Soc Emerg Med.  2020 Feb;31(1):111-119.

Performance of four different tools for predicting mortality in elderly patients with severe trauma

• Lee JH
• Min YI
• Lee DH
• Jung YH
• Jeung KW
• Lee BK
• Lee HY
• Cho YS
• Heo T

Abstract

Objective
The present study aimed to analyze and compare the prognostic performances of Revised Trauma Score (RTS), Injury Severity Score (ISS), shock index (SI), and modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) for in-hospital mortality in severe trauma.
Methods
This retrospective observational study included elderly (≥65 years) patients admitted for severe trauma between January 2018 and December 2018. Receiver operating characteristics analysis was performed to examine the prognostic performance of the four different tools. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality following an injury.
Results
Of the 279 patients included in the study, in-hospital mortality was 20.1% (n=56). In multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 1.055; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.004-1.109), ISS (OR, 1.080; 95% CI, 1.008-1.157), Glasgow Coma Scale (OR, 0.842; 95% CI, 0.785-0.904), and respiratory rate (OR, 1.261; 95% CI, 1.071-1.486) were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. The area under the curves (AUCs) of MEWS, RTS, ISS, and SI were 0.851 (95% CI, 0.763-0.857), 0.733 (0.677-0.784), 0.664 (0.606-0.720), and 0.567 (0.506-0.626), respectively. The AUC of MEWS was significantly different from those of RTS (P=0.034), ISS (P=0.001), and SI (P<0.001).
Conclusion
MEWS has the highest prognostic performance for in-hospital mortality among four different tools in elderly patients with severe trauma.

Keyword

Mortality; Trauma; Aged; Trauma severity indices