Gut Liver.  2016 Nov;10(6):955-961. 10.5009/gnl15321.

Clinical Model for Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinomas in Patients with Post-Sustained Virologic Responses of Chronic Hepatitis C: A Case Control Study

• Zeng QL
• Li B
• Zhang XX
• Chen Y
• Fu YL
• Lv J
• Liu YM
• Yu ZJ

• KMID: 2412102
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.5009/gnl15321

Abstract

BACKGROUND/AIMS
No clinical model exists to predict the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in sustained virologic response-achieving (HCC after SVR) patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC).
METHODS
We performed a case-control study using a clinical database to research the risk factors for HCC after SVR. A predictive model based on risk factors was established, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated.
RESULTS
In the multivariate model, an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis and post-SVR albumin reductions of 1 g/L were associated with 21.7-fold (95% CI, 4.2 to 112.3; p<0.001) and 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.7; p=0.004) increases in the risk of HCC after SVR, respectively. A predictive model based on an initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis (yes, +1; no, 0) and post-SVR albumin ≤36.0 g/L (yes, +1; not, 0) predicted the occurrence of HCC after SVR with a cutoff value of >0, an AUC of 0.880, a sensitivity of 0.833, a specificity of 0.896, and a negative predictive value of 0.956.
CONCLUSIONS
An initial diagnosis of compensated cirrhosis combined with a post-SVR albumin value of ≤36.0 g/L predicts the occurrence of HCC after SVR in patients with CHC.

Keyword

Case-control studies; Chronic hepatitis C; He-patocellular carcinoma; Risk factors; Sustained virologic response

MeSH Terms

Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/*virology
Case-Control Studies
Female
Hepatitis C, Chronic/blood/*complications/drug therapy
Humans
Liver Cirrhosis/complications/virology
Liver Neoplasms/*virology
Male
*Models, Statistical
Multivariate Analysis
Predictive Value of Tests
Risk Factors
Serum Albumin/analysis
*Sustained Virologic Response
Antiviral Agents
Serum Albumin