Epidemiol Health.  2017;39:e2017042. 10.4178/epih.e2017042.

Using the capture-recapture method to estimate the human immunodeficiency virus-positive population

• Poorolajal J
• Mohammadi
• Farzinara

• KMID: 2406646
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2017042

Abstract

OBJECTIVES
The capture-recapture method was applied to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals not registered with any data sources.
METHODS
This cross-sectional study was conducted in Lorestan Province, in the west of Iran, in 2016. Three incomplete sources of HIV-positive individuals, with partially overlapping data, were used, including: (a) transfusion center, (b) volunteer counseling and testing centers (VCTCs), and (c) prison. The 3-source capture-recapture method, using a log-linear model, was applied for data analysis. The Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion were used for model selection.
RESULTS
Of the 2,456 HIV-positive patients registered in these 3 data sources, 1,175 (47.8%) were identified in transfusion center, 867 (35.3%) in VCTCs, and 414 (16.8%) in prison. After the exclusion of duplicate entries, 2,281 HIV-positive patients remained. Based on the capture-recapture method, 14,868 (95% confidence interval, 9,923 to 23,427) HIV-positive individuals were not identified in any of the registries. Therefore, the real number of HIV-positive individuals was estimated to be 17,149, and the overall completeness of the 3 registries was estimated to be around 13.3%.
CONCLUSIONS
Based on capture-recapture estimates, a huge number of HIV-positive individuals are not registered with any of the provincial data sources. This is an urgent message for policymakers who plan and provide health care services for HIV-positive patients. Although the capture-recapture method is a useful statistical approach for estimating unknown populations, due to the assumptions and limitations of the method, the population size may be overestimated as it seems possible in our results.

Keyword

Capture-recapture method; HIV seropositivity; Linear models; Iran

MeSH Terms

Counseling
Cross-Sectional Studies
Delivery of Health Care
HIV
HIV Seropositivity
Humans*
Information Storage and Retrieval
Iran
Linear Models
Methods*
Population Density
Prisons
Registries
Statistics as Topic
Volunteers