Gut Liver.  2017 Nov;11(6):843-851. 10.5009/gnl16458.

Useful Endoscopic Ultrasonography Parameters and a Predictive Model for the Recurrence of Esophageal Varices and Bleeding after Variceal Ligation

• Jeong SW
• Kim HS
• Kim SG
• Yoo JJ
• Jang JY
• Lee SH
• Kim HS
• Lee JS
• Kim YS
• Kim BS

• KMID: 2395390
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.5009/gnl16458

Abstract

BACKGROUND/AIMS
To identify the usefulness of endoscopic ultrasonography with a mini-probe (EUM) and to create a predictive model for esophageal variceal (EV) recurrence and bleeding following esophageal variceal ligation (EVL).
METHODS
A total of 144 patients who received EUM prior to prophylactic EVL and met the inclusion criteria were enrolled. EUM findings, EV diameter, paraesophageal vein diameter, and the number of perforating veins were assessed.
RESULTS
EV recurrence was observed in 42 patients (29.2%), 10 of whom experienced EV bleeding. Larger diameter of the paraesophageal vein (odds ratio [OR], 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17 to 1.96; p=0.002) and perforating vein (OR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.11 to 9.65; p=0.032) were significant predictive factors for EV recurrence. However, the diameter of the paraesophageal vein was the only significant risk factor for EV bleeding (adjusted OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.16; p=0.022). The areas under the curves of the predictive model for EV recurrence and bleeding were 0.872 (95% CI, 0.811 to 0.934) and 0.811 (95% CI, 0.630 to 0.992), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The diameter of the paraesophageal vein was a significant predictive factor for EV recurrence and bleeding. The predictive model constructed based on the significant EUM findings exhibited good performance.

Keyword

Esophageal and gastric varices; Recurrence; Hemorrhage; Endosonography

MeSH Terms

Endosonography*
Esophageal and Gastric Varices*
Hemorrhage*
Humans
Ligation*
Recurrence*
Risk Factors
Veins