J Clin Neurol.  2016 Oct;12(4):441-445. 10.3988/jcn.2016.12.4.441.

Projected Numbers of Ischemic Strokes Recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry from 2012 to 2075

• Hitzl W
• Trinka E
• Seyfang L
• Mutzenbach S
• Stadler K
• Pikija S
• Killer M
• Broussalis E

• KMID: 2385108
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3988/jcn.2016.12.4.441

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE
This study analyzed the number of patients with ischemic strokes recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry with the aim of projecting this number from 2012 to 2075 and to highlight that the Austrian health system will face a dramatic increase in older patients within the next few decades.
METHODS
Current demographic information was obtained from EUROSTAT, and information on age- and sex-stratified 1-year incidence rates of ischemic stroke were obtained from the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry. Sensitivity analysis was performed by analyzing the projections based on predicted ageing, main, and growth population scenarios, and with stratification by age and gender.
RESULTS
The total number of ischemic strokes recorded in the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry was 8,690 in 2012 and is expected to increase to 15,826, 15,626, or 18,134 in 2075 according to the ageing, main, and growth scenarios, respectively. The corresponding numbers of patients are projected to increase or decrease within different age strata as follows (100%=number of registered ischemic strokes in 2012): 0-40 years, 100%/99% (males/females); 40-50 years, 83%/83%; 50-60 years, 98%/97%; 60-70 years, 126%/119%; 70-80 years, 159%/139%; 80-90 years, 307%/199%; and 90+ years, 894%/413%.
CONCLUSIONS
The ageing population in Austria will result in the number of patients increasing considerably from 2012 to 2075, to 182%, 180%, or 208% (relative to 100% in 2012) according to the ageing, main, and growth scenarios, respectively; the corresponding value among those aged 80+ years is 315%, 290%, or 347%. These figures demonstrated the importance of improving primary preventive measures. The results of this study should provide a basis for discussions among health-care professionals and economists to face the future large financial burden of ischemic stroke on the Austrian health system.

Keyword

ischemic stroke; projections; stroke unit; Austria; ageing; health system

MeSH Terms

Austria
Humans
Incidence
Stroke*

Figure

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  Fig. 1 Population pyramids for Austria in 2012, 2050, and 2075 stratified by sex according to the main scenario.7

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  Fig. 2 Projected numbers of patients with registered ischemic stroke in Austria between 2012 and 2075 stratified by age and sex. The ageing, main (most likely), and growth scenarios are based on population projections of EUROSTAT and the Austrian Stroke-Unit Registry. Main scenario: mean fertility, mean life expectancy, and mean immigration, middle lines; Growth scenatio: high fertility, high life expectancy, and high immigration, upper lines; Ageing scenario: low fertility, high life expectancy, and low immigration; lower lines.

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