Korean J Parasitol.  2016 Aug;54(4):399-405. 10.3347/kjp.2016.54.4.399.

Impact of Irrigation Extension on Malaria Transmission in Simret, Tigray, Ethiopia

• Chung B

• KMID: 2353568
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3347/kjp.2016.54.4.399

Abstract

Poor subsistence farmers who live in a semi-arid area of northern Ethiopia build irrigation systems to overcome water shortages. However, there is a high risk of malaria transmission when increased standing water provides more favorable habitats for mosquito breeding. This is a serious problem because there are many barriers to malaria control measures and health care systems in the area. Using a causal loop diagram and computer simulations, the author attempted to visually illustrate positive and negative feedbacks between mosquito and human populations in the context of Simret, which is a small village located in northern Ethiopia and is generally considered a malaria-free area. The simulation results show that the number of infectious mosquitos increases to 17,215 at its peak, accounting for 3.5% of potentially dangerous mosquitos. At the same time, the number of sick people increases to 574 at its peak, accounting for 15% of local population. The malaria outbreak is controlled largely because of a fixed number of vulnerable people or local population that acts as an intermediate host.

Keyword

Plasmodium falciparum; Plasmodium vivax; malaria; irrigation extension; feedback; Ethiopia

MeSH Terms

Breeding
Computer Simulation
Culicidae
Delivery of Health Care
Ecosystem
Ethiopia*
Farmers
Humans
Malaria*
Plasmodium falciparum
Plasmodium vivax
Water
Water