Epidemic modeling and Table-top Exercise for Emerging Infectious Diseases in Korea

Chun, Byung Chul

Abstract

Understanding the spread of infections is of vital importance in the control of epidemics and the development of proper policies toprevent infectious diseases. Theory and techniques have been developed for the study of both the evolution of diseases with individual people and the transmission of infections through populations. From broad theoretical issues to specific practical problems, the mathematical modeling studies of infectious diseases have provided great insight to solve the mechanisms of disease spread and to predict the course of epidemics. Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases have attracted widespread concern in Korea. While preparing the influenza pandemic plan in 2004, we developed a model of the new influenza pandemic to estimate the number of cases and deaths, the shortage of medical resources, and the effect of interventions such as isolation and vaccination. Based on this model, we constructed a possible pandemic scenario of the emerging virus, and designed a table-top exercise for public health officials and related administration staff. On March 30th, 2005, the exercise was performed and the results were evaluated as successful. In the case of bioterrorism, a model of small pox epidemic was developed in 2005 to examine the speed of the disease spread in the population and to evaluate the intervention effects in a Korean city. The simulation results were also helpful to form a guideline to prepare for a small pox epidemic. These two experiments confirmed the usefulness of epidemic modeling in Korea.