Multivariate Analysis of Adverse Pregnancy Outcome by Multiprediction Factors

Han, In Soo; Han, Jung Yeol; Ko, Myong In; Choi, Yong Kwan; Lee, Hong Bok; Yang, Jea Hyuk; Ryu, Hyun Mi; Kim, Moon Young; Kim, Eun Sung; Han, Ho Won

Abstract

PURPOSE: To evaluate a role as over 35 years, maternal serum markers, and a false positive screen for Down syndrome were the predictor of adverse pregnancy outcome. Materials and
METHODS
From Mar.1994, through Feb.1996, 5284 women were screened triple test to detect Down syndrome in the second trimester and were delivered Samsung Cheil hospital. The values of each maternal serum markers were measured with radioimmunoassay. And then, the screen positive of Down syndrome was calculated using alpha-software Version 4.0. The adverse outcome of the fetus and the mother included low birth weight(LBW) ( <2500gm), prematurity( <37 gestational weeks), placenta previa, preterm premature rupture of membranes(PPROM), pregnancy induced hypertension(PIH),abruptio placenta, and intrauterine fetal death(IUFD). The predictor markers included over 35years, elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), elevated human chorionic gonadotropin(hCG), lowered unconjugated estriol (uE3), and a false positive screen for Down syndrome.
RESULTS
Mean age and mean gestational weeks in the study were 30+/-4.8 years and 17.1 weeks respectively. The adverse pregnancy outcomes were 357 LBW(6.8%), 253 prematurity(4.8%), 108 placenta previa(2.0%), 68 PPROM(1.3%), 66 PIH(1.3%), 24 abruptio placenta(0.5%), and 20 IUFD(0.4%). In univariate analysis, over 35 years was significantly associated with abruptio placenta, prematurity, and placenta previa, elevated MS-AFP( >2.0 MoM) associated with IUFD, LBW, PIH, prematurity, and PPROM , elevated MS-hCG (>3.0 MoM) associated with IUFD, LBW, PIH, prematurity, and placenta previa, lowered uE3 (<0.75) associated with IUFD, abruptio placenta, LBW, and prematurity.(P <0.05). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, IUFD was significantly associated with only elevated MS-AFP, LBW associated with elevated MS-AFP, elevated MS-hCG, and lowered uE3, PIH associated with only elevated MS-AFP, PPROM only elevated MS-AFP, prematurity only elevated MS-AFP, and placenta previa over 35 years, elevated MS-hCG.(P <0.05). However, abruptio placenta was not significantly associated with predictor markers.(P >0.05)
CONCLUSIONS
Some predictors such as over 35 year, elevated hCG, lowered uE3, a false positive screen for Down syndrome were significantly associated with adverse pregnancy outcome. Also in multivariate analysis, we identified especially elevated AFP to be the most reliable predictor for adverse pregnancy outcome.