Korean J healthc assoc Infect Control Prev.  2024 Dec;29(2):82-92. 10.14192/kjicp.2024.29.2.82.

Epidemiology and Pandemic Risk Assessment of Avian Influenza

• Song JY

• KMID: 2563513
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.14192/kjicp.2024.29.2.82

Abstract

This paper examines the epidemiology and characteristics of avian influenza, with a focus on its potential to cause pandemics. Avian influenza, caused by type A influenza viruses, is an acute viral infection primarily affecting wild birds and rarely transmitting to humans. However, genetic reassortment and human-adaptive mutations can lead to emergence of novel strains with pandemic potential. This paper highlights the evolution and global spread of avian influenza viruses, particularly the H5 and H7 subtypes, which have occasionally infected humans and various mammals. Although predicting pandemics remains impossible, pandemic risk assessment plays a crucial role in prioritizing investments in influenza preparedness, such as vaccine development. It also identifies knowledge gaps, guides further research, ensures transparent decision-making based on scientific evidence, and promotes effective communication among policymakers, experts, and the public. This review provides insights from current pandemic risk assessments for various avian influenza viruses, emphasizing the importance of vigilant monitoring and pre-pandemic vaccine development to mitigate the threat of future influenza pandemic.

Keyword

Avian influenza; Pandemics; Genetic recombination; Risk assessment; Vaccines

Figure

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  Fig. 1 Natural circulation of influenza viruses.

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  Fig. 2 Pandemic risk assessment process for the novel influenza viruses by IRAT (Influenza Risk Assessment Tool) [37]. Abbreviation: SME, subject matter experts.

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  Fig. 3 Pandemic risk assessment results for the novel influenza viruses by Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) [41].

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