J Korean Med Sci.  2024 May;39(20):e168. 10.3346/jkms.2024.39.e168.

Future Blood Debt: Projecting Blood Supply and Demand of Korea Based on Subnational Population Projections (2021–2050)

• Kim OS
• Ji S
• Jung HW
• Matthews SA
• Cha YJ
• Moon SD
• Kim K

• KMID: 2556285
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2024.39.e168

Abstract

Background
South Korea faces a critical challenge with its rapidly declining fertility rates and an increasingly aging population, which significantly impacts the country's blood supply and demand. Despite these nationwide trends, regional disparities in blood supply and demand have not been thoroughly studied.
Methods
This research utilized blood donation data from the Korean Red Cross and blood transfusion data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. We analyzed these datasets in conjunction with regional population projections to simulate blood supply and demand from 2021 to 2050 across South Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of various factors, including the number of donors, age eligibility criteria for donations, frequency of donations, and blood discard rates.
Results
Our projections indicate a decreasing trend in blood supply, from 2.6 million units in 2021 to 1.4 million units by 2050, while demand is expected to peak at 5.1 million units by 2045 before declining. Metropolitan areas, particularly Gyeonggi Province, are projected to experience the most severe shortages. Sensitivity analyses suggest that increasing the donation frequency of existing donors and relaxing age eligibility criteria are more effective strategies in addressing these imbalances than merely increasing the number of new donors. Blood discard rates showed minimal impact on the overall blood shortage.
Conclusion
The findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted strategies to mitigate national and regional blood supply shortages in South Korea. Encouraging frequent donations from experienced donors and broadening eligibility criteria are critical steps toward stabilizing the blood supply amidst demographic shifts. These strategies must be prioritized to address the impending regional disparities in blood availability.

Keyword

Blood; Blood Donation; Population Projection; Geographic Information Systems; Spatial Demography; Public Health

Figure

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  Fig. 1 Age-specific blood donations and population-adjusted blood donations in Korea. (A) Age-specific blood donations. (B) Population-adjusted age-specific blood donations.

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  Fig. 2 Age-specific blood consumption and population-adjusted blood consumption in Korea. (A) Age-specific blood consumption. (B) Population-adjusted age-specific blood consumption.

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  Fig. 3 National and sub-national population pyramids for 2021 and 2050.

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  Fig. 4 Blood supply and blood demand in different age groups (2021–2050). (A) Blood supply. (B) Blood demand.

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  Fig. 5 Predicted ratios of blood demand to supply in different regions of Korea in 2030 and 2050. (A) 2030. (B) 2050.

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  Fig. 6 Sensitivity analyses of different assumptions. (A) Blood supply with age cap, (B) Blood supply without the age cap, and (C) Blood discard rates (2021–2050).

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