Osong Public Health Res Perspect.  2024 Apr;15(2):115-136. 10.24171/j.phrp.2023.0287.

AI-powered COVID-19 forecasting: a comprehensive comparison of advanced deep learning methods

• Tariq MU
• Ismail SB

• KMID: 2555338
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.24171/j.phrp.2023.0287

Abstract

Objectives
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to pose significant challenges to the public health sector, including that of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The objective of this study was to assess the efficiency and accuracy of various deep-learning models in forecasting COVID-19 cases within the UAE, thereby aiding the nation’s public health authorities in informed decision-making.
Methods
This study utilized a comprehensive dataset encompassing confirmed COVID-19 cases, demographic statistics, and socioeconomic indicators. Several advanced deep learning models, including long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM, convolutional neural network (CNN), CNN-LSTM, multilayer perceptron, and recurrent neural network (RNN) models, were trained and evaluated. Bayesian optimization was also implemented to fine-tune these models.
Results
The evaluation framework revealed that each model exhibited different levels of predictive accuracy and precision. Specifically, the RNN model outperformed the other architectures even without optimization. Comprehensive predictive and perspective analytics were conducted to scrutinize the COVID-19 dataset.
Conclusion
This study transcends academic boundaries by offering critical insights that enable public health authorities in the UAE to deploy targeted data-driven interventions. The RNN model, which was identified as the most reliable and accurate for this specific context, can significantly influence public health decisions. Moreover, the broader implications of this research validate the capability of deep learning techniques in handling complex datasets, thus offering the transformative potential for predictive accuracy in the public health and healthcare sectors.

Keyword

Deep Learning [G17.035.250.500.250]; Artificial Intelligence [G17.035.250]; Computing Methodologies [L01.224]; Neural Networks; Computer [L01.224.050.375.605]; Algorithms [G17.035]