Epidemiol Health.
2023;45(1):e2023093. 10.4178/epih.e2023093.
Forecasting the effects of vaccination on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia using SEIRV compartmental models
- Lim MC
1 - Singh S1
- Lai CH1
- Gill BS1
- Kamarudin MK1
- Md Zamri ASS1
- Tan CV1
- Zulkifli AA1
- Nadzri MNM1
- Mohd Ghazali N1
- Mohd Ghazali S1
- Md Iderus NH1
- Ahmad NARB1
- Suppiah J1
- Tee KK2
- Aris T1
- Ahmad LCRQ1
- Affiliations
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- 1Institute for Medical Research (IMR), National Institutes of Health (NIH), Ministry of Health Malaysia, Setia Alam, Malaysia
- 2Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
- KMID: 2552296
- DOI: http://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2023093
Abstract
OBJECTIVES
This study aimed to develop susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-vaccinated (SEIRV) models to examine the effects of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case trends in Malaysia during Phase 3 of the National COVID-19 Immunization Program amidst the Delta outbreak.
METHODS
SEIRV models were developed and validated using COVID-19 case and vaccination data from the Ministry of Health, Malaysia, from June 21, 2021 to July 21, 2021 to generate forecasts of COVID-19 cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Three scenarios were examined to measure the effects of vaccination on COVID-19 case trends. Scenarios 1 and 2 represented the trends taking into account the earliest and latest possible times of achieving full vaccination for 80% of the adult population by October 31, 2021 and December 31, 2021, respectively. Scenario 3 described a scenario without vaccination for comparison.
RESULTS
In scenario 1, forecasted cases peaked on August 28, 2021, which was close to the peak of observed cases on August 26, 2021. The observed peak was 20.27% higher than in scenario 1 and 10.37% lower than in scenario 2. The cumulative observed cases from July 22, 2021 to December 31, 2021 were 13.29% higher than in scenario 1 and 55.19% lower than in scenario 2. The daily COVID-19 case trends closely mirrored the forecast of COVID-19 cases in scenario 1 (best-case scenario).
CONCLUSIONS
Our study demonstrated that COVID-19 vaccination reduced COVID-19 case trends during the Delta outbreak. The compartmental models developed assisted in the management and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.
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