Health Policy Manag.  2023 Dec;33(4):457-478. 10.4332/KJHPA.2023.33.4.457.

Appropriate Adjustment according to the Supply and Demand Status and Trend of Doctors

• Jung YH
• Jang YS
• Kim H
• Park EC
• Jang SI

• KMID: 2551401
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4332/KJHPA.2023.33.4.457

Abstract

Background
This study aims to contribute to the adjustment of the appropriate doctor manpower by analyzing the distribution, supply and demand, and estimation of the doctor manpower.
Methods
This study utilized the medical personnel data of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, population trend data of the National Statistical Office, and health insurance benefit performance data of the National Health Insurance Service. Based on 2021, we compared the number of doctors in actual supply and the number of doctors in demand according to the amount of medical use by gender and age for 250 regions. Logistic regression analysis and scenario analysis were performed to estimate the future medical workforce by considering the demand for doctors according to the future demographic structure, the size of the quota in medical schools, and the retirement rate.
Results
There were 186 regions in which the supply of doctors was below average, and the average ratio of the number of doctors in supply to demand in the region was 62.1%.
Conclusion
In order to increase the number of active doctors nationwide to at least 80%, 7,756 people must be allocated. The number of doctors in demand is estimated to decrease after increasing to 1.492 times in 2059. The future projected number of doctors is expected to increase to 1.349 times in 2050 and then decrease taking into account the doctor quota and the retirement rate.

Keyword

Physicians; Health resources; Health personnel; Health workforce; Health services accessibility