J Prev Med Public Health.  2023 Jan;56(1):59-66. 10.3961/jpmph.22.428.

Discrete-time Survival Analysis of Risk Factors for Early Menarche in Korean Schoolgirls

• Gil YJ
• Park JH
• Sung J

• KMID: 2539047
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.22.428

Abstract

Objectives
The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of body weight status and sleep duration on the discrete-time hazard of menarche in Korean schoolgirls using multiple-point prospective panel data.
Methods
The study included 914 girls in the 2010 Korean Children and Youth Panel Study who were in the elementary first-grader panel from 2010 until 2016. We used a Gompertz regression model to estimate the effects of weight status based on age-specific and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) percentile and sleep duration on an early schoolchild’s conditional probability of menarche during a given time interval using general health condition and annual household income as covariates.
Results
Gompertz regression of time to menarche data collected from the Korean Children and Youth Panel Study 2010 suggested that being overweight or sleeping less than the recommended duration was related to an increased hazard of menarche compared to being average weight and sleeping 9 hours to 11 hours, by 1.63 times and 1.38 times, respectively, while other covariates were fixed. In contrast, being underweight was associated with a 66% lower discrete-time hazard of menarche.
Conclusions
Weight status based on BMI percentiles and sleep duration in the early school years affect the hazard of menarche.

Keyword

Menarche; Survival analysis; Obesity; Adolescent; Body mass index; Sleep