J Korean Acad Pediatr Dent.  2022 Aug;49(3):274-284. 10.5933/JKAPD.2022.49.3.274.

Trend Analysis and Prediction of the Number of Births and the Number of Outpatients using Time Series Analysis

• An H
• Kim S
• Choi N

• KMID: 2533711
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.5933/JKAPD.2022.49.3.274

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze the trend of the number of births in Gwangju and the number of outpatients in Pediatric Dentistry at Chonnam National University Dental Hospital over the past 10 years (2010 - 2019) and predict the next year using time series analysis. The number of births showed an unstable downward trend with monthly variations, with the highest in January and the lowest in December. The average number of births in 2020 was predicted to be 682 (595 to 782, 95% CI), and the actual number of births was an average of 610. The number of outpatients was relatively stable, showing a month-to-month variation, with highest in August and the lowest in June. The average number of patients in 2020 was predicted to be 603 (505 to 701, 95% CI), and the average number of actual visits was 587. Despite the decrease in the number of births, the number of outpatients was expected to increase somewhat. Due to the special situation of COVID-19, the actual number of births and patients was to be slightly lower than the predicted values, but it was that they were within the predicted confidence interval. Time series analysis can be used as a basic tool to prepare for the low fertility era in the field of pediatric dentistry.

Keyword

Time series analysis; Autoregressive error model; Low fertility; ARIMA model