Tuberc Respir Dis.  1979 Sep;26(3):15-23. 10.4046/trd.1979.26.3.15.

Tuberculosis Problem Analysis by Epidemiological Simulation Model in Korea (1)

• KMID: 2528898
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4046/trd.1979.26.3.15

Abstract

Present and appropriate epidemiological information is indispensable for the establishment and accomplishment of effective National Tuberculosis Control Programme. An attempt is made to estimate the time trend of tuberculosis epidemiology and of epidemiological tuberculosis problems reduction through National Tuberculosis Control Programme for 12 years from 1965 to 1977, by applying Y. Azuma' simple epidemiological simulation model. Those resuit are as follòws: 1. Prevalence rate or infectious cases showed 0.798 % in 1965 and 0.534 % in 1977 among total population, which means 32,3 % of reduction rate comparing With that of 1965. 2. Tuberculosis incidence rate cotild be estimated 0.1473% in 1965 and 0.1345% in 1977, which means 8.7% of reduction rate comparing with incidence in 1965. 3. Tuberculosis infection rate showed 47.89% in 1965 and 45.38% in 1977, which means 9.0% of reduction rate comparing. with that of 1965. 4. Tuberculosis death tatè could be estimated 110.4 in 1965 and 59.9 in 1977 per 100 000 of populution which means 45.7% of reduction ratè comparing with that of 1965. 5. Work-load durlng 12 years from 1965 to under the National Tuberculosis Control programme could be estimated Dated 12,100,000 of total number of BCG vaccination and 763, 882 of the total number of patient treatment years. By application of BCG vaccination and case management under the National Tuberculosis Control programme, the number of patient reduced was 344, 440 or 12.85 % of patient treatment years, and the reduction rate of tuberculosis death was 29.6%. 6. Treatment coverage has increased from 19.5% in 1965 to 49.44% in 1977, and the treatment regularity from 20 % in 1965 to 34.46% in 1977, respectively.