Perinatology.  2021 Dec;32(4):166-176. 10.14734/PN.2021.32.4.166.

Estimates of Future Population, Birth Rate, and Number of Total Births and Children in South Korea: Comparison with Past Statistics

• Kim E
• Yun J
• Kim CY
• Chung SH
• Son SH
• Choi YS
• Bae CW

• KMID: 2524269
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.14734/PN.2021.32.4.166

Abstract

Objective
South Korea has faced future population decline because of the continuous decrease in the birth rate. It coupled with increased life expectancy will accelerate population aging and decrease the size of the working-age population over time. This study aimed to investigate the trends and estimates from some indicators by reviewing population changes and birth rates from data available from Statistics Korea.
Methods
We analyzed the results from 1980 to 2019 based on actual data reports and those from 2020 to 2060 based on model estimates using Korean Statistical Information Service and Statistics Korea.
Results
After 2020, the population is expected to increase to 51,942 thousand persons by 2028 and will begin to decline to 51,940 thousand persons by 2029, 49,574 thousand persons by 2045, and 42,838 thousand persons by 2060, thereafter remaining below 50,000 thousand persons. According to the middle-level scenario about crude birth rate (CBR), estimated CBR will be 5.8 in 2022, the lowest level, and will increase insignificantly to 6.0 by 2023 and 6.3 by 2035. It will begin declining again, falling back to 5.8 by 2040 and 5.0 by 2050.
Conclusion
These analyses will help establish public-health policies for newborns and children in Korea over the next 40 years.

Keyword

Population; Birth rate; Child; Statistics; Republic of Korea