Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2021
- Affiliations
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- 1Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea
- 2Division of Cancer Registration and Surveillance, National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea
- 3National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea
- 4National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center, Goyang, Korea
- KMID: 2514914
- DOI: http://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2021.290
Abstract
- Purpose
This study aimed to report the projected cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2021 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.
Materials and Methods
Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2018 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2019 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2021. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the year in which the linear trend changed significantly; we only used the data of the latest trend.
Results
In total, 259,999 new cancer cases and 81,567 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2021. The most common cancer site is expected to be the lung, followed by the thyroid, colon and rectum, breast, and stomach. These five cancers are expected to represent half of the overall burden of cancer in Korea. The most common type of cancer leading to death is expected to be lung cancer, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, and stomach cancers.
Conclusion
The incidence rates for all types of cancer in Korea are estimated to gradually decrease. These up-to-date estimates of the cancer burden in Korea could be an important resource for planning and evaluating cancer-control programs.
Figure
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Fig. 1 The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2021. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.
Fig. 2 Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2021 in Korea. (A) Men. (B) Women.
Fig. 3 Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2021 in Korea. (A) Men. (B). Women.
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Reference
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