J Prev Med Public Health.
2020 Nov;53(6):387-396. 10.3961/jpmph.20.395.
Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan
- Semenova Y
1 - Pivina L2
- Khismetova Z3
- Auyezova A4
- Nurbakyt A5
- Kauysheva A6
- Ospanova D7
- Kuziyeva G8
- Kushkarova A9
- Ivankov A10
- Glushkova N5
- Affiliations
-
- 1Department of Neurology, Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology, Semey Medical University, Semey, Kazakhstan
- 2Department of Internal Medicine, Semey Medical University, Semey, Kazakhstan
- 3Department of Public Health, Semey Medical University, Semey, Kazakhstan
- 4Head Office, Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- 5Department of Epidemiology, Evidence Medicine and Biostatistics, Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- 6Department of Research and International Affairs Kazakhstan Medical University Higher School of Public Health, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- 7Department of Public Health, Kazakh Medical University of Continuing Education, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- 8Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Evidence-Based Medicine, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- 9Medical College, South Kazakhstan Medical Academy, Shymkent, Kazakhstan
- 10Department of Postgraduate Education, Kazakh Medical University of Continuing Education, Almaty, Kazakhstan
- KMID: 2511329
- DOI: http://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.395
Abstract
Objectives
The lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available.
Methods
We constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks.
Results
Over the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively.
Conclusions
Republic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions.
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