Endocrinol Metab.  2020 Jun;35(2):416-424. 10.3803/EnM.2020.35.2.416.

Association of Body Mass Index with the Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes, Cardiovascular Disease, and All-Cause Mortality: A Community-Based Prospective Study

• Bae JC
• Cho NH
• Kim JH
• Hur KY
• Jin SM
• Lee MK

• KMID: 2503272
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3803/EnM.2020.35.2.416

Abstract

Background
Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are the most important sequelae of obesity and the leading cause of death. We evaluated the association between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of incident type 2 diabetes, CVD, and all-cause mortality in a prospective study of a Korean population.
Methods
The shapes of the associations were modeled by restricted cubic splines regression analysis. After categorizing all subjects (n=8,900) into octiles based on their BMI levels, we estimated the hazard ratio (HR) for the association of categorized BMI levels with the risk of incident CVD and type 2 diabetes using a Cox’s proportional hazard analysis.
Results
The mean age of participants was 52 years and 48% were men. Of the subjects at baseline, 39.0% of men and 45.6% of women were classified as obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m2). Over a mean follow-up of 8.1 years, CVD events occurred in 509 participants; 436 died; and 1,258 subjects developed type 2 diabetes. The increased risk of incident diabetes began to be significant at BMI 23 to 24 kg/m2 in both sexes (HR, 1.8). For CVD events, the risk began to increase significantly at BMI 26 to 28 kg/m2 (HR, 1.6). We found a reverse J-shaped relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality, with an increased risk among individuals with BMI values in lower range (BMI <21 kg/m2).
Conclusion
These results suggest that the BMI cut-off points for observed risk were varied depending on the diseases and that the BMI classification of obesity need to be revised to reflect differential risk of obesity-related diseases.

Keyword

Body mass index; Obesity; Diabetes mellitus; Cardiovascular diseases

Figure

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  Fig. 1 The association between body mass index (BMI) level and development of cardiovascular disease. (A) Men, (B) Women. The analyses were adjusted for age, smoking, alcohol intake, and regular exercise. Dash line indicates 95% confidence interval (CI).

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  Fig. 2 The association between body mass index (BMI) level and development of type 2 diabetes. (A) Men, (B) Women. The analyses were adjusted for age, smoking, alcohol intake, and regular exercise. Dash line indicates 95% confidence interval (CI).

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  Fig. 3 The association between body mass index (BMI) level and all-cause mortality. (A) Men, (B) Women. The analyses were adjusted for age, smoking, alcohol intake, and regular exercise. Dash line indicates 95% confidence interval (CI).

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