J Prev Med Public Health.  2020 May;53(3):151-157. 10.3961/jpmph.20.076.

Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

• Alimohamadi Y
• Taghdir M
• Sepandi M

• KMID: 2503088
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.076

Abstract

Objectives
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R₀) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R₀ for COVID-19 in the current outbreak.
Methods
International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R₀ of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: “COVID-19” and “basic reproduction number” or “R₀.” The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I² index, the Cochran Q test, and T². A random-effects model was used to estimate R₀ in this study.
Results
The mean reported R₀ in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R₀ for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R₀ did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81).
Conclusions
Considering the estimated R₀ for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R₀ was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.

Keyword

Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Meta-analysis; Public health; Outbreak