J Korean Acad Nurs.  2020 Apr;50(2):191-199. 10.4040/jkan.2020.50.2.191.

Prediction Models of Mild Cognitive Impairment Using the Korea Longitudinal Study of Ageing

• Park H
• Ha J

• KMID: 2500600
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4040/jkan.2020.50.2.191

Abstract

Purpose
The purpose of this study was to compare sociodemographic characteristics of a normal cognitive group and mild cognitive impairment group, and establish prediction models of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI).
Methods
This study was a secondary data analysis research using data from “the 4th Korea Longitudinal Study of Ageing” of the Korea Employment Information Service. A total of 6,405 individuals, including 1,329 individuals with MCI and 5,076 individuals with normal cognitive abilities, were part of the study. Based on the panel survey items, the research used 28 variables. The methods of analysis included a c2-test, logistic regression analysis, decision tree analysis, predicted error rate, and an ROC curve calculated using SPSS 23.0 and SAS 13.2.
Results
In the MCI group, the mean age was 71.4 and 65.8% of the participants was women. There were statistically significant differences in gender, age, and education in both groups. Predictors of MCI determined by using a logistic regression analysis were gender, age, education, instrumental activity of daily living (IADL), perceived health status, participation group, cultural activities, and life satisfaction. Decision tree analysis of predictors of MCI identified education, age, life satisfaction, and IADL as predictors.
Conclusion
The accuracy of logistic regression model for MCI is slightly higher than that of decision tree model. The implementation of the prediction model for MCI established in this study may be utilized to identify middle-aged and elderly people with risks of MCI. Therefore, this study may contribute to the prevention and reduction of dementia.

Keyword

Cognitive Dysfunction; Logistic Models; Decision Trees