Diabetes Metab J.  2019 Feb;43(1):90-96. 10.4093/dmj.2018.0043.

Projection of Diabetes Prevalence in Korean Adults for the Year 2030 Using Risk Factors Identified from National Data

• Baik I

• KMID: 2460975
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2018.0043

Abstract

BACKGROUND
A number of studies have reported future prevalence estimates for diabetes mellitus (DM), but these studies have been limited for the Korean population. The present study aimed to construct a forecasting model that includes risk factors for type 2 DM using individual- and national-level data for Korean adults to produce prevalence estimates for the year 2030.
METHODS
Time series data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and national statistics from 2005 to 2013 were used. The study subjects were 13,908 male and 18,697 female adults aged 30 years or older who were free of liver cirrhosis. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to select significant factors associated with DM prevalence.
RESULTS
The results showed that survey year, age, sex, marital, educational, or occupational status, the presence of obesity or hypertension, smoking status, alcohol consumption, sleep duration, psychological distress or depression, and fertility rate significantly contributed to the 8-year trend in DM prevalence (P < 0.05). Based on sex-specific forecasting models that included the above factors, DM prevalence for the year 2030 was predicted to be 29.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.6% to 30.8%) in men and 19.7% (95% CI, 18.2% to 21.2%) in women.
CONCLUSION
The present study projected a two-fold increase in the prevalence of DM in 2030 compared with that for the years 2013 and 2014 in Korean adults. Modifiable factors contributing to this increase in DM prevalence, such as obesity, smoking, and psychological factors, may require attention in order to reduce national and individual costs associated with DM.

Keyword

Diabetes mellitus; Forecasting; Prevalence; Risk factors

MeSH Terms

Adult*
Alcohol Drinking
Birth Rate
Depression
Diabetes Mellitus
Employment
Female
Forecasting
Humans
Hypertension
Korea
Liver Cirrhosis
Logistic Models
Male
Nutrition Surveys
Obesity
Prevalence*
Psychology
Risk Factors*
Smoke
Smoking
Smoke

Figure

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  Fig. 1 Comparison between the observed and projected prevalence of diabetes mellitus in adult males and females for the year 2013 when considering the 2013 population projection. The dashed lines indicate the projected prevalence of diabetes mellitus (14.0 % for men and 10.4% for women) before considering the 2013 population projection. CI, confidence interval.

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  Fig. 2 Projected prevalence of diabetes mellitus in adult males and females for the year 2030 when considering the 2030 population projection. CI, confidence interval.

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