J Korean Acad Nurs.  2015 Oct;45(5):723-732. 10.4040/jkan.2015.45.5.723.

Non-linear System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of Adolescent Obesity: Using Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey

• Lee H
• Park ES
• Yu JK
• Yun EK

• KMID: 2363097
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4040/jkan.2015.45.5.723

Abstract

PURPOSE
The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for adolescent obesity in Korea that could be used for obesity policy analysis.
METHODS
On the basis of the casual loop diagram, a model was developed by converting to stock and flow diagram. The Vensim DSS 5.0 program was used in the model development. We simulated method of moments to the calibration of this model with data from The Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey 2005 to 2013. We ran the scenario simulation.
RESULTS
This model can be used to understand the current adolescent obesity rate, predict the future obesity rate, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the risk factors. The results of the model simulation match well with the data. It was identified that a proper model, able to predict obesity probability, was established.
CONCLUSION
These results of stock and flow diagram modeling in adolescent obesity can be helpful in development of obesity by policy planners and other stakeholders to better anticipate the multiple effects of interventions in both the short and the long term. In the future we suggest the development of an expanded model based on this adolescent obesity model.

Keyword

Adolescent; Obesity; Nonlinear dynamics

MeSH Terms

Adolescent
Humans
Internet
*Nonlinear Dynamics
Obesity/*pathology
Republic of Korea
Risk Factors
*Risk-Taking
Surveys and Questionnaires

Figure

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  Figure 1 Basic stock flow diagram of adolescent obesity.

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  Figure 2 Validation of the model.

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  Figure 3 Prediction of overweight and obesity adolescent in 2025.

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  Figure 4 Results of scenario simulation.

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