J Korean Neuropsychiatr Assoc.  1997 Jul;36(4):643-647.

Predictive Values of Korean Cognitive Function Tests in Unselected Elderly Community Samples: Bayesian Analysis

• Park JH
• Kim CS
• Shin CG

Abstract

OBJECTIVE
The authors calculated the positive and negative predictive values of the Korean version of minimenteal state examination(MMSEK) and Cognitive Impairment Diagnosing Instrument(CIDI) in order to estimate the reliability of these tests In large unselected populations.
METHODS
The data of the MMSEK were selected from Park et al's study. The data of the CIDI were selected from Park's another study. Calculation of the positive and negative predictive values was based on the Bayes theorem.
RESULTS
When the prevalence of dementia is 2.5% among the elderly people in a community, the MMSEK cutoff point of 20 for identification of dementia yielded 72.3% FV(+) and 99.5% PV(-). When it is 10.8%, the curio(f point for identification of dementia yielded 92.5% FV(+) and 97.8% FV(-). Using the CIDI cutoff point of 57, FV(+) was estimated as 27.5% and FV(-) as 99.8% when the prevalence of dementia is 2.5% among the elderly people in a community. FV(+) and FV(-) were computed as 64.2% and 99.1%, respectively, assuming that the prevalence of dementia is 10.8% in an elderly population based on the above CIDI cutoff point.
CONCLUSION
When the MMSEK and CIDI are to be used in unselected elderly samples, it is important to know the predictive values of these tests related with prevalences.

Keyword

Cognitive function; Dementia; Predictive value

MeSH Terms

Aged*
Bayes Theorem*
Dementia
Humans
Prevalence