Retrospective Validation of the San Francisco Syncope Rule for Predicting Serious Outcomes in a Korean Emergency Department

Shin, Mi Ok; Kang, Tae Kyung; Kim, Hye Jin; Oh, Sung Chan; Cho, Suk Jin; Lee, Sang Lae; Ryu, Seok Yong

Abstract

PURPOSE
Syncope in a common condition that is typically benign but is occasionally associated with mortality. We conducted a retrospective validation of the San Francisco Syncope Rule (SFSR) for use in identifying emergency department (ED) syncope patients with short-term serious outcomes.
METHODS
We studied 131 syncope patients who were admitted to or visited the out-patient department within 1 month of an ED visit related to syncope from January to December 2010. Patients meeting the inclusion criteria as defined in the SFSR derivation were evaluated for 5 previously derived predictor variables: abnormal electrocardiography (ECG), shortness of breath, hematocrit <30%, triage systolic blood pressure <90 mm Hg, and a history of congestive heart failure. Predetermined outcome measures as defined by the SFSR included death, myocardial infarction, arrhythmia, pulmonary embolism, stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, significant hemorrhage, or any condition causing or likely to cause a return ED visit and hospitalization, or related event.
RESULTS
The patient group consisted of 63 males and 68 females with an average age of 56 years. 35(26.7%) patients met the predetermined criteria for serious outcome. 10 of 35(28.6%) patients with a serious outcome were not identified as high risk using the rule. The rule performance for predicting serious outcomes included a sensitivity of 71.4% (95% confidence interval (CI), 56% to 86%), specificity of 69.8% (95% confidence interval (CI), 69% to 70%) and positive predictive value of 47.3%.
CONCLUSION
In this retrospective validation study in Korea, the SFSR performed with comparable specificity but with significantly lower sensitivity than reported in the original study. Implementing the rule would significantly increase admission rates.