Saf Health Work.  2012 Dec;3(4):294-297.

Investigating the Time Lag Effect between Economic Recession and Suicide Rates in Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry Workers in Korea

• Yoon JH
• Junger W
• Kim BW
• Kim YJ
• Koh SB

Abstract

Previous studies on the vast increase in suicide mortality in Southeast Asia have indicated that suicide rates increase in parallel with a rise in unemployment or during periods of economic recession. This paper examines the effects of economic recession on suicidal rates amongst agriculture, fisheries, and forestry workers in Korea. Monthly time-series gross domestic product (GDP) data were linked with suicidal rates gathered from the cause of death records between1993-2008. Data were analyzed using generalized additive models to analyze trends, while a polynomial lag model was used to assess the unconstrained time lag effects of changes in GDP on suicidal rate. We found that there were significant inverse correlations between changes in GDP and suicide for a time lag of one to four months after the occurrence of economic event. Furthermore, it was evident that the overall relative risks of suicide were high enough to bring about social concern.

Keyword

Suicide; Economic recession; Time series analysis

MeSH Terms

Agriculture
Asia, Southeastern
Cause of Death
Economic Recession
Fisheries
Forestry
Gross Domestic Product
Guanosine Diphosphate
Korea
Suicide
Unemployment
Guanosine Diphosphate