Development of a Forecasting Model for University Food Services

Chung, La naI; Yang, Il Sun; Baek, Seung Hee

Abstract

The purposes of this study were to develop a model for university foodservices and to provide management strategies for reducing costs, and increasing productivity and customer satisfaction. The results of this study were as follows : 1) The demands in university food services varied depending on the time series. A fixed pattern was discovered for specific times of the month and semesters. The demand tended to constantly decrease from the beginning of a specific semester to the end, from March to June and from September to December. Moreover, the demand was higher during the first semester than the second semester, within school term than during vacation periods, and during the summer vacation than the winter. 2) Pearson's simple correlation was done between actual customer demand and the factors relating to forecasting the demand. There was ahigh level of correlation between the actual demand and the demand that had occurred in the previous weeks. 3) By applying the stepwise multiple linear regression analysis to two different university food services providing multiple menu items, a model was developed in terms of four different time series (first semester, second semester, summer vacation, and winter vacation). Customer preference for specific menu items was found to be the most important factor to be considered in forecasting the demand.