a study on The Effect of The Tobacco Price Raise on The Smoking Rate and Smoking Attributable Death

Kang, Jong Won; Kim, Joung Soom

Abstract

This study was performed to estimate the quantity of the effects of tobacco price raise on the smoking rate, and the smoking attributable deaths in Korea. The data were collected by questionnaire survey from 538 male office workers. The questionnaire contained items on age, sex, living place, status of education, smoking history, the intention to quit smoking when the tobacco price be raised. The questionnaire were distributed to the offices of enterprises, hospitals, research centers, and public agencies and then collected. Data were analyzed by using the age specific smoking rate, relative risks of eight major smoking related diseases, vital statistics, and the population attributable risk of deaths of smoking males. On the other hand, the impact of the tobacco price raise on the population attributable risk of death due to smoking in Korea was estimated by applying the presumed smoking rate after the price raise. The results obtained were as follows: 1. The smoking rate of male white color workers in large cities was 59.5%. 2. The proportion of male smokers who has the intention to quit smoking when the tobacco price be raised was 61.5%. 3. The proportion of male smokers who has the intention to quit smoking if the price of tobacco be raised was proportional to the degree of increasing tobacco price. It is estimated that if the tobacco price were raised more than four times as now, the presumed smoking rate goes down as low as 26.7%. If the tobacco price be raised 20% each year, presumed smoking rate is 46.2%. 4. The number of attributable male death of smoking estimated by using 8 major smoking related diseases(lung cancer, laryngeal cancer, esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, pancreatic cancer, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) was 25,863 death each year. That is 20.1% of total age over 20 male deaths. 5. If the tobacco price were raised more than four times as now and all smokers who has intention to quit smoking quits smoking, 12,336 lives, or 47.7% of smoking related deaths could be saved. 6. If the actual practice rate of quitting smoking among male smokers with intention to stop smoking when the price of tobacco be raised is 10%, 25%, or 50%, then the expected decrease of death numbers when the tobacco price were raised more than four times as now can be 1,112, 3,483, 5,796 respectively.