J Korean Acad Nurs.  2015 Jun;45(3):429-438. 10.4040/jkan.2015.45.3.429.

Development and Application of a Performance Prediction Model for Home Care Nursing Based on a Balanced Scorecard using the Bayesian Belief Network

• Noh W
• Seomun G

• KMID: 2164384
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4040/jkan.2015.45.3.429

Abstract

PURPOSE
This study was conducted to develop key performance indicators (KPIs) for home care nursing (HCN) based on a balanced scorecard, and to construct a performance prediction model of strategic objectives using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN).
METHODS
This methodological study included four steps: establishment of KPIs, performance prediction modeling, development of a performance prediction model using BBN, and simulation of a suggested nursing management strategy. An HCN expert group and a staff group participated. The content validity index was analyzed using STATA 13.0, and BBN was analyzed using HUGIN 8.0.
RESULTS
We generated a list of KPIs composed of 4 perspectives, 10 strategic objectives, and 31 KPIs. In the validity test of the performance prediction model, the factor with the greatest variance for increasing profit was maximum cost reduction of HCN services. The factor with the smallest variance for increasing profit was a minimum image improvement for HCN. During sensitivity analysis, the probability of the expert group did not affect the sensitivity. Furthermore, simulation of a 10% image improvement predicted the most effective way to increase profit.
CONCLUSION
KPIs of HCN can estimate financial and non-financial performance. The performance prediction model for HCN will be useful to improve performance.

Keyword

Hospital-based home care services; Task performance; Bayesian prediction

MeSH Terms

Bayes Theorem
Home Care Services/*economics
Humans
*Models, Theoretical
*Program Development
Task Performance and Analysis

Figure

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  Figure 1 Research process.

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  Figure 2 Performance prediction model for HCN.

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