Cancer Res Treat.  2015 Apr;47(2):142-148. 10.4143/crt.2015.066.

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2015

• Jung KW
• Won YJ
• Oh CM
• Kong HJ
• Cho H
• Lee DH
• Lee KH

• KMID: 2132791
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2015.066

Abstract

PURPOSE
For estimation of Korea's current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on the projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2015.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2013 were acquired from Statistics Korea. The cancer incidence in 2015 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to the observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against the observed years and then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A similar procedure was used for cancer mortality, except a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.
RESULTS
A total of 280,556 new cancer cases and 76,698 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2015. The crude incidence rate per 100,000 of all sites combined will likely reach 551.6 and the age-standardized incidence rate, 347.6. The estimated five leading primary cancer incidence sites are the stomach, colorectum, lung, prostate, and liver in men; and thyroid, breast, colorectum, stomach, and lung in women. The projected crude mortality rate of all sites combined and age-standardized rate is 150.8 and 82.4, respectively.
CONCLUSION
Cancer is currently one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea, and as the population ages, the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase.

Keyword

Incidence; Mortality; Neoplasms; Forecasting; Korea; 2015

MeSH Terms

Breast
Female
Forecasting
Humans
Incidence*
Korea
Linear Models
Liver
Lung
Male
Mortality*
Prostate
Public Health
Stomach
Thyroid Gland

Figure

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  Fig. 1. The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2015. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.

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  Fig. 2. Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2015 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

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  Fig. 3. Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2015 in Korea. (A) Male. (B) Female.

Reference

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